{"market":{"market_id":"4118937","condition_id":"0x1d78389ca8fbb953ab8ed8d1fecb5160ac4c3a2b0185fed3c248f4d2e5cf5192","slug":"russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-31-2026","question":"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?","uma_question_id":"0x684dd6cbe6987a947829cf0d3034e6fc00b9289d015983a38331a568ee6c4516","adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","neg_risk":false,"closed":false,"gamma_end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","uma_end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"gamma_dates_raw":{}},"adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","adapter_label":"UmaCtfAdapter (Managed OOV2)","oracle":"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1","uma_state":"requested","resolved_on_chain":false,"paused":false,"dispute_count":2,"open_dispute":false,"sent_to_uma_vote":true,"current_proposal":null,"disputes":[{"disputed_at":"2026-10-21T23:33:15Z","tx":"0x104dfa4ea65734df8f80204aa583fca87aa9a18d8b66f54400166a9e5047587c","disputed_proposal":"Yes"},{"disputed_at":"2026-10-21T23:36:53Z","tx":"0x127e282b5c613f0f88a98ff4d7d2b8de61d0ff0befea811a0dfd30b0e6e2aa74","disputed_proposal":"Yes"}],"bulletin_board":{"count":1,"latest":{"posted_at":"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification","text":"Per the rules, “A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.” Further “The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings).”\n\nOn October 20-21, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Wit","text_sha256":"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8"},"updates":[{"posted_at":"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification","text_sha256":"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8"}]},"onchain_resolution":null,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T02:36:24Z","block":{"number":"96472486","hash":"0x55ce7bb8e326c9cee98428a63e8fdcd019cfccd741d4957fab1022e5538f538d","timestamp":"2026-10-31T02:36:25Z"},"risk_level":"caution","recommendation":"caution: disputed twice, the outcome goes to a UMA token-holder vote, second dispute 219.0 h ago; median 88.5 h from a second dispute to on-chain resolution (Polymarket, 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-02).","segment_dispute_rate":{"table":"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1","segment":"politics","category":"politics","sports_market_type":"none","markets":"28502","disputed":"333","rate":"0.011683","ci95":["0.010500","0.012998"],"window":"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02","note":"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market."},"settlement_estimate_available":{"path":"/v1/settlement-risk/4118937/estimate","price_usd":"$0.02","note":"settlement_estimate is sold per call over x402 (or free with a pilot key); it is not on this free record."},"context":{"period":"2026-01-01 to 2026-10-02","source":"UMA Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket UMA CTF adapter logs on Polygon, scanned by Predge","disputes":3005,"disputed_markets":2666,"disputed_twice_or_more":323,"settled_disputed_markets":2543,"settled_differently_from_disputed_proposal":853,"settled_differently_share":"33.5%","median_hours_first_dispute_to_onchain_resolution":"3.3","median_hours_second_dispute_to_onchain_resolution":"88.5","note":"A dispute blocks a proposal; it does not by itself change the outcome. A second dispute sends the outcome to a UMA token-holder vote."},"data_basis":"Live read of UMA's Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter on Polygon (eth_call and eth_getLogs on public RPC) at checked_at; every eth_call is made at the block named in `block` and no log is read past it. uma_question_id, dispute times and txs, bulletin-board updates and the on-chain resolution are chain facts, re-checkable on any Polygon RPC. The market lookup (condition id, market id, slug to UMA question id) uses Polymarket's public gamma API and is re-checked on chain: keccak256(ancillaryData) equals uma_question_id. Only the question creator's and the venue operator accounts' bulletin-board posts are counted. risk_level and recommendation are Predge's reading of those facts, not advice. segment_dispute_rate is a statistic computed from 2026 Polymarket disputes (docs/settlement-estimate.md): how often markets of this kind were disputed in 2026. It is not advice. Polymarket Protocol V2 markets (protocol \"v2\") are read through Polymarket's OracleAggregator and UMA's OOReporter on the same Managed Optimistic Oracle V2: adapter is the OOReporter, uma_question_id is keccak256 of the request rules (the UMA ancillary data), and polymarket_v2 carries the aggregator's request state, its own disputes, arbitration, admin override and UMA re-requests (docs/settlement-risk-v2.md). settlement_estimate is not on this free record: it is on GET /v1/settlement-risk/{market}/estimate (x402, per call). The signature proves Predge published this record.","attestation":{"version":"predge-attest-v1","issuer":"predge.io","algorithm":"ed25519","kind":"settlement-risk","data_basis":"Live read of UMA's Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter on Polygon (eth_call and eth_getLogs on public RPC) at checked_at; every eth_call is made at the block named in `block` and no log is read past it. uma_question_id, dispute times and txs, bulletin-board updates and the on-chain resolution are chain facts, re-checkable on any Polygon RPC. The market lookup (condition id, market id, slug to UMA question id) uses Polymarket's public gamma API and is re-checked on chain: keccak256(ancillaryData) equals uma_question_id. Only the question creator's and the venue operator accounts' bulletin-board posts are counted. risk_level and recommendation are Predge's reading of those facts, not advice. segment_dispute_rate is a statistic computed from 2026 Polymarket disputes (docs/settlement-estimate.md): how often markets of this kind were disputed in 2026. It is not advice. Polymarket Protocol V2 markets (protocol \"v2\") are read through Polymarket's OracleAggregator and UMA's OOReporter on the same Managed Optimistic Oracle V2: adapter is the OOReporter, uma_question_id is keccak256 of the request rules (the UMA ancillary data), and polymarket_v2 carries the aggregator's request state, its own disputes, arbitration, admin override and UMA re-requests (docs/settlement-risk-v2.md). settlement_estimate is not on this free record: it is on GET /v1/settlement-risk/{market}/estimate (x402, per call). The signature proves Predge published this record.","public_key":"3b6551a6439b9bda0de7e3b8dc89f276b2141fdfde310f762e663ab4ba2e9d1b","canonical":"{\"adapter\":\"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7\",\"adapter_label\":\"UmaCtfAdapter (Managed OOV2)\",\"block\":{\"hash\":\"0x55ce7bb8e326c9cee98428a63e8fdcd019cfccd741d4957fab1022e5538f538d\",\"number\":\"96472486\",\"timestamp\":\"2026-10-31T02:36:25Z\"},\"bulletin_board_count\":\"1\",\"bulletin_board_updates\":[{\"kind\":\"clarification\",\"posted_at\":\"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z\",\"poster\":\"question_creator\",\"text_sha256\":\"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8\"}],\"chain\":\"polygon\",\"checked_at\":\"2026-10-31T02:36:24Z\",\"condition_id\":\"0x1d78389ca8fbb953ab8ed8d1fecb5160ac4c3a2b0185fed3c248f4d2e5cf5192\",\"context_sha256\":\"344ab544a95d5a74981aedba9caeb81b67c29a94381843c12c1efef7e033b387\",\"current_proposal\":null,\"dispute_count\":\"2\",\"disputes\":[{\"disputed_at\":\"2026-10-21T23:33:15Z\",\"disputed_proposal\":\"Yes\",\"tx\":\"0x104dfa4ea65734df8f80204aa583fca87aa9a18d8b66f54400166a9e5047587c\"},{\"disputed_at\":\"2026-10-21T23:36:53Z\",\"disputed_proposal\":\"Yes\",\"tx\":\"0x127e282b5c613f0f88a98ff4d7d2b8de61d0ff0befea811a0dfd30b0e6e2aa74\"}],\"issued_at\":\"2026-10-31T02:36:25.045Z\",\"issuer\":\"predge.io\",\"kind\":\"settlement-risk\",\"latest_bulletin_board_update\":{\"kind\":\"clarification\",\"posted_at\":\"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z\",\"poster\":\"question_creator\",\"text_sha256\":\"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8\"},\"market\":{\"adapter\":\"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7\",\"closed\":false,\"closed_time\":null,\"condition_id\":\"0x1d78389ca8fbb953ab8ed8d1fecb5160ac4c3a2b0185fed3c248f4d2e5cf5192\",\"gamma_dates_raw\":{},\"gamma_end_date\":\"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z\",\"market_id\":\"4118937\",\"neg_risk\":false,\"question\":\"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?\",\"slug\":\"russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-31-2026\",\"uma_end_date\":null,\"uma_question_id\":\"0x684dd6cbe6987a947829cf0d3034e6fc00b9289d015983a38331a568ee6c4516\"},\"market_id\":\"4118937\",\"onchain_resolution\":null,\"open_dispute\":false,\"oracle\":\"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1\",\"paused\":false,\"payload_version\":\"3\",\"platform\":\"polymarket\",\"polymarket_v2\":null,\"protocol\":\"v1\",\"recommendation\":\"caution: disputed twice, the outcome goes to a UMA token-holder vote, second dispute 219.0 h ago; median 88.5 h from a second dispute to on-chain resolution (Polymarket, 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-02).\",\"resolved_on_chain\":false,\"risk_level\":\"caution\",\"segment_dispute_rate\":{\"category\":\"politics\",\"ci95\":[\"0.010500\",\"0.012998\"],\"disputed\":\"333\",\"markets\":\"28502\",\"note\":\"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market.\",\"rate\":\"0.011683\",\"segment\":\"politics\",\"sports_market_type\":\"none\",\"table\":\"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1\",\"window\":\"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02\"},\"sent_to_uma_vote\":true,\"uma_question_id\":\"0x684dd6cbe6987a947829cf0d3034e6fc00b9289d015983a38331a568ee6c4516\",\"uma_state\":\"requested\",\"version\":\"predge-attest-v1\"}","signature":"797523e3e98beeb05fa5c2a0724d7d325d3445db0afb9be34773dd09e3dbb994a88e778d4fc24bd091ae7b543d8fb106d171636d76951a6fcbaa684f8dbbdf0c","payload":{"version":"predge-attest-v1","issuer":"predge.io","kind":"settlement-risk","platform":"polymarket","chain":"polygon","market_id":"4118937","condition_id":"0x1d78389ca8fbb953ab8ed8d1fecb5160ac4c3a2b0185fed3c248f4d2e5cf5192","uma_question_id":"0x684dd6cbe6987a947829cf0d3034e6fc00b9289d015983a38331a568ee6c4516","adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","oracle":"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1","uma_state":"requested","resolved_on_chain":false,"paused":false,"dispute_count":"2","open_dispute":false,"sent_to_uma_vote":true,"current_proposal":null,"disputes":[{"disputed_at":"2026-10-21T23:33:15Z","tx":"0x104dfa4ea65734df8f80204aa583fca87aa9a18d8b66f54400166a9e5047587c","disputed_proposal":"Yes"},{"disputed_at":"2026-10-21T23:36:53Z","tx":"0x127e282b5c613f0f88a98ff4d7d2b8de61d0ff0befea811a0dfd30b0e6e2aa74","disputed_proposal":"Yes"}],"bulletin_board_count":"1","latest_bulletin_board_update":{"posted_at":"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification","text_sha256":"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8"},"bulletin_board_updates":[{"posted_at":"2026-10-23T01:37:05Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification","text_sha256":"13e0acd32c98f418af9701df092df67f0c05f0d85494a4f75ef097036984abc8"}],"onchain_resolution":null,"risk_level":"caution","recommendation":"caution: disputed twice, the outcome goes to a UMA token-holder vote, second dispute 219.0 h ago; median 88.5 h from a second dispute to on-chain resolution (Polymarket, 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-02).","segment_dispute_rate":{"table":"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1","segment":"politics","category":"politics","sports_market_type":"none","markets":"28502","disputed":"333","rate":"0.011683","ci95":["0.010500","0.012998"],"window":"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02","note":"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market."},"protocol":"v1","polymarket_v2":null,"payload_version":"3","market":{"market_id":"4118937","condition_id":"0x1d78389ca8fbb953ab8ed8d1fecb5160ac4c3a2b0185fed3c248f4d2e5cf5192","slug":"russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-31-2026","question":"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?","uma_question_id":"0x684dd6cbe6987a947829cf0d3034e6fc00b9289d015983a38331a568ee6c4516","adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","neg_risk":false,"closed":false,"gamma_end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","uma_end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"gamma_dates_raw":{}},"adapter_label":"UmaCtfAdapter (Managed OOV2)","context_sha256":"344ab544a95d5a74981aedba9caeb81b67c29a94381843c12c1efef7e033b387","block":{"number":"96472486","hash":"0x55ce7bb8e326c9cee98428a63e8fdcd019cfccd741d4957fab1022e5538f538d","timestamp":"2026-10-31T02:36:25Z"},"checked_at":"2026-10-31T02:36:24Z","issued_at":"2026-10-31T02:36:25.045Z"},"verify":"ed25519: verify `signature` (hex, 64 bytes) over the UTF-8 bytes of `canonical` using `public_key` (hex, raw 32-byte ed25519 point). `canonical` is the exact byte string that was signed — JSON with keys sorted lexicographically at every level and no insignificant whitespace (a subset of RFC 8785 / JCS). `payload` is the same object parsed; re-canonicalise it and you MUST reproduce `canonical`. If `payload.payment` is present it names the x402 payment that bought this response. On `payment.network`, find the `AuthorizationUsed(payer, nonce)` log emitted by `payment.asset`; in that same transaction receipt (not just the same block) require status 1 and a `Transfer(payer, payTo, amount)` log from `payment.asset`. Those arguments are the fields of `payment` with the same names. envelope_signature: remove the `envelope_signature` field from the envelope, canonicalise what is left with the same rule as `canonical` (keys sorted at every level, no whitespace), and verify `envelope_signature` (hex, 64 bytes) over its UTF-8 bytes with `public_key`.","kid":"3b6551a6439b9bda","content_hash":"ed467221a344cb922f9ad3862e47551887305c5bedf55bc8931f94ff14b14ea2","envelope_signature":"d4714bb0d3c001bcba3abc209c2331aaef855a2526c552e2333e768cf71e4966535cbd4c64a64f78d594c5d0daa763c8fce9774d103ac0c661d33d09b6c8790a"}}