{"market":{"market_id":"5369848","condition_id":"0xaae1f65683e72f7f73e8b3b86b7f20a3a80f589c41be6b7402171ed3d1ca0bbf","slug":"cs2-mw-ldp-2026-10-07-total-games-2pt5","question":"Games Total: O/U 2.5","uma_question_id":"0x8c379b1299db46733f13507f73cfffb657bedc094fa9e1e392305f979fa97cf4","adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","neg_risk":false,"closed":true,"end_date":"2026-10-08T03:00:00Z"},"adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","adapter_label":"UmaCtfAdapter (Managed OOV2)","oracle":"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1","uma_state":"settled","resolved_on_chain":true,"paused":false,"dispute_count":2,"open_dispute":false,"sent_to_uma_vote":true,"current_proposal":null,"disputes":[{"disputed_at":"2026-10-07T23:19:49Z","tx":"0xd38565dc50abb136f7f28c1d1638f24cca693c5bc17ffd63e2e8305bcee889e5","disputed_proposal":"50-50"},{"disputed_at":"2026-10-07T23:56:59Z","tx":"0xf41b256451fd67e1f52658c0d31892e3ced93f38dc828779228b0ee8c2c498fa","disputed_proposal":"Under"}],"bulletin_board":{"count":2,"latest":{"posted_at":"2026-10-08T23:45:03Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification","text":"Per the rules, “Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed,” and “If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match.”\n\nMETANOIA WOLVES forfeited Map 1 (Dust2) to largadosypelados during a technical pause. Map 2 (Cache) was then set up on the official match platform, and METANOIA WOLVES did not connect within the allotted time, forfeiting Map 2 and giving largadosypelados a 2-0 series victory."}},"onchain_resolution":{"outcome":"Under"},"checked_at":"2026-10-15T15:49:39Z","risk_level":"resolved","recommendation":"resolved: the on-chain resolution is final (Under); nothing is left to settle.","settlement_estimate":null,"segment_dispute_rate":{"table":"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1","segment":"esports/totals","category":"esports","sports_market_type":"totals","markets":"21659","disputed":"30","rate":"0.001385","ci95":["0.000970","0.001977"],"window":"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02","note":"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market."},"context":{"period":"2026-01-01 to 2026-10-02","source":"UMA Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket UMA CTF adapter logs on Polygon, scanned by Predge","disputes":3005,"disputed_markets":2666,"disputed_twice_or_more":323,"settled_disputed_markets":2543,"settled_differently_from_disputed_proposal":853,"settled_differently_share":"33.5%","median_hours_first_dispute_to_onchain_resolution":"3.3","median_hours_second_dispute_to_onchain_resolution":"88.5","note":"A dispute blocks a proposal; it does not by itself change the outcome. A second dispute sends the outcome to a UMA token-holder vote."},"data_basis":"Live read of UMA's Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter on Polygon (eth_call and eth_getLogs on public RPC) at checked_at. uma_question_id, dispute times and txs, bulletin-board updates and the on-chain resolution are chain facts, re-checkable on any Polygon RPC. The market lookup (condition id, market id, slug to UMA question id) uses Polymarket's public gamma API and is re-checked on chain: keccak256(ancillaryData) equals uma_question_id. Only the question creator's and the venue operator accounts' bulletin-board posts are counted. risk_level and recommendation are Predge's reading of those facts, not advice. settlement_estimate and segment_dispute_rate are statistics computed from 2026 Polymarket disputes (docs/settlement-estimate.md): the estimate uses the market price before the first dispute from Polymarket's public CLOB price history and the market's type; the segment rate is how often markets of this kind were disputed in 2026. Neither is advice. Polymarket Protocol V2 markets (protocol \"v2\") are read through Polymarket's OracleAggregator and UMA's OOReporter on the same Managed Optimistic Oracle V2: adapter is the OOReporter, uma_question_id is keccak256 of the request rules (the UMA ancillary data), and polymarket_v2 carries the aggregator's request state, its own disputes, arbitration, admin override and UMA re-requests (docs/settlement-risk-v2.md); settlement_estimate is null on V2 markets because the model was fitted on V1 disputes. The signature proves Predge published this record.","attestation":{"version":"predge-attest-v1","issuer":"predge.io","algorithm":"ed25519","kind":"settlement-risk","data_basis":"Live read of UMA's Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter on Polygon (eth_call and eth_getLogs on public RPC) at checked_at. uma_question_id, dispute times and txs, bulletin-board updates and the on-chain resolution are chain facts, re-checkable on any Polygon RPC. The market lookup (condition id, market id, slug to UMA question id) uses Polymarket's public gamma API and is re-checked on chain: keccak256(ancillaryData) equals uma_question_id. Only the question creator's and the venue operator accounts' bulletin-board posts are counted. risk_level and recommendation are Predge's reading of those facts, not advice. settlement_estimate and segment_dispute_rate are statistics computed from 2026 Polymarket disputes (docs/settlement-estimate.md): the estimate uses the market price before the first dispute from Polymarket's public CLOB price history and the market's type; the segment rate is how often markets of this kind were disputed in 2026. Neither is advice. Polymarket Protocol V2 markets (protocol \"v2\") are read through Polymarket's OracleAggregator and UMA's OOReporter on the same Managed Optimistic Oracle V2: adapter is the OOReporter, uma_question_id is keccak256 of the request rules (the UMA ancillary data), and polymarket_v2 carries the aggregator's request state, its own disputes, arbitration, admin override and UMA re-requests (docs/settlement-risk-v2.md); settlement_estimate is null on V2 markets because the model was fitted on V1 disputes. The signature proves Predge published this record.","public_key":"13fa3d18a369e6c71bf941563ba47822b30182273d5106a0e8fb61c5016352d9","canonical":"{\"adapter\":\"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7\",\"bulletin_board_count\":\"2\",\"chain\":\"polygon\",\"checked_at\":\"2026-10-15T15:49:39Z\",\"condition_id\":\"0xaae1f65683e72f7f73e8b3b86b7f20a3a80f589c41be6b7402171ed3d1ca0bbf\",\"current_proposal\":null,\"dispute_count\":\"2\",\"disputes\":[{\"disputed_at\":\"2026-10-07T23:19:49Z\",\"disputed_proposal\":\"50-50\",\"tx\":\"0xd38565dc50abb136f7f28c1d1638f24cca693c5bc17ffd63e2e8305bcee889e5\"},{\"disputed_at\":\"2026-10-07T23:56:59Z\",\"disputed_proposal\":\"Under\",\"tx\":\"0xf41b256451fd67e1f52658c0d31892e3ced93f38dc828779228b0ee8c2c498fa\"}],\"issued_at\":\"2026-10-15T15:49:41.586Z\",\"issuer\":\"predge.io\",\"kind\":\"settlement-risk\",\"latest_bulletin_board_update\":{\"kind\":\"clarification\",\"posted_at\":\"2026-10-08T23:45:03Z\",\"poster\":\"question_creator\"},\"market_id\":\"5369848\",\"onchain_resolution\":{\"outcome\":\"Under\"},\"open_dispute\":false,\"oracle\":\"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1\",\"paused\":false,\"platform\":\"polymarket\",\"polymarket_v2\":null,\"protocol\":\"v1\",\"recommendation\":\"resolved: the on-chain resolution is final (Under); nothing is left to settle.\",\"resolved_on_chain\":true,\"risk_level\":\"resolved\",\"segment_dispute_rate\":{\"category\":\"esports\",\"ci95\":[\"0.000970\",\"0.001977\"],\"disputed\":\"30\",\"markets\":\"21659\",\"note\":\"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market.\",\"rate\":\"0.001385\",\"segment\":\"esports/totals\",\"sports_market_type\":\"totals\",\"table\":\"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1\",\"window\":\"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02\"},\"sent_to_uma_vote\":true,\"settlement_estimate\":null,\"uma_question_id\":\"0x8c379b1299db46733f13507f73cfffb657bedc094fa9e1e392305f979fa97cf4\",\"uma_state\":\"settled\",\"version\":\"predge-attest-v1\"}","signature":"95abfade74fab373d44e4c1a6de02b92f3460b95ad8f5d141a46490e0b3511aa47af80a4daeccbbce38337137dd514cae1c5825b64512e98a700d931e121b00b","payload":{"version":"predge-attest-v1","issuer":"predge.io","kind":"settlement-risk","platform":"polymarket","chain":"polygon","market_id":"5369848","condition_id":"0xaae1f65683e72f7f73e8b3b86b7f20a3a80f589c41be6b7402171ed3d1ca0bbf","uma_question_id":"0x8c379b1299db46733f13507f73cfffb657bedc094fa9e1e392305f979fa97cf4","adapter":"0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7","oracle":"0x2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1","uma_state":"settled","resolved_on_chain":true,"paused":false,"dispute_count":"2","open_dispute":false,"sent_to_uma_vote":true,"current_proposal":null,"disputes":[{"disputed_at":"2026-10-07T23:19:49Z","tx":"0xd38565dc50abb136f7f28c1d1638f24cca693c5bc17ffd63e2e8305bcee889e5","disputed_proposal":"50-50"},{"disputed_at":"2026-10-07T23:56:59Z","tx":"0xf41b256451fd67e1f52658c0d31892e3ced93f38dc828779228b0ee8c2c498fa","disputed_proposal":"Under"}],"bulletin_board_count":"2","latest_bulletin_board_update":{"posted_at":"2026-10-08T23:45:03Z","poster":"question_creator","kind":"clarification"},"onchain_resolution":{"outcome":"Under"},"risk_level":"resolved","recommendation":"resolved: the on-chain resolution is final (Under); nothing is left to settle.","settlement_estimate":null,"segment_dispute_rate":{"table":"segment-dispute-rate-2026-v1","segment":"esports/totals","category":"esports","sports_market_type":"totals","markets":"21659","disputed":"30","rate":"0.001385","ci95":["0.000970","0.001977"],"window":"Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets with scheduled end date 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30, closed and resolved by 2026-10-02","note":"Share of 2026 markets in this segment whose UMA resolution was disputed at least once. A segment statistic with a 95% Wilson interval, not a prediction for this market."},"protocol":"v1","polymarket_v2":null,"checked_at":"2026-10-15T15:49:39Z","issued_at":"2026-10-15T15:49:41.586Z"},"verify":"ed25519: verify `signature` (hex, 64 bytes) over the UTF-8 bytes of `canonical` using `public_key` (hex, raw 32-byte ed25519 point). `canonical` is the exact byte string that was signed — JSON with keys sorted lexicographically at every level and no insignificant whitespace (a subset of RFC 8785 / JCS). `payload` is the same object parsed; re-canonicalise it and you MUST reproduce `canonical`. If `payload.payment` is present it names the x402 payment that bought this response. On `payment.network`, find the `AuthorizationUsed(payer, nonce)` log emitted by `payment.asset`; in that same transaction receipt (not just the same block) require status 1 and a `Transfer(payer, payTo, amount)` log from `payment.asset`. Those arguments are the fields of `payment` with the same names. envelope_signature: remove the `envelope_signature` field from the envelope, canonicalise what is left with the same rule as `canonical` (keys sorted at every level, no whitespace), and verify `envelope_signature` (hex, 64 bytes) over its UTF-8 bytes with `public_key`.","kid":"13fa3d18a369e6c7","content_hash":"e814f0e562470ee5390feeac2d11eccd168b3df7b1ba9e13515e3091b482048c","envelope_signature":"92a79895084ef740e188fd44c97b86d6bcd7395ebae58ca87bc881b2793a9a26799847194182a80c4e14d1d977c210ea578ec94775927d89cc0eb7a11f26e30a"}}